Employment Projections

Caretaker period

On 8 May 2016 the Prime Minister of Australia, the Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP, announced a federal election would be held on 2 July 2016 and as such the Australian Government has assumed a caretaker role. This website will be managed in accordance with the Caretaker Conventions until the result of the election has been determined.

Employment Projections

Employment is projected to increase in 16 of the 19 broad industries over the five years to November 2020. Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth (increasing by 250,200), followed by Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (151,200), Education and Training (121,700) and Retail Trade (106,000). Together, these four industries are projected to provide more than half of total employment growth over the five years to November 2020.

2016 Employment Projections

Employment projections for the five years to November 2020.

Each year, the Department of Employment produces employment projections by industry, occupation, skill level and region for the following five-year period. These employment projections are designed to provide a guide to the future direction of the labour market, however, like all such exercises, they are subject to an inherent degree of uncertainty.

2016 employment projections are based on ABS employment data for November 2015 and the Government’s forecasts and projections in the December 2015 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).

2016 Industry Employment Projections Report (DOCX) Industry projections – five years to November 2020 (XLSX) Occupation projections (XLSX) Skill Level projections (XLSX) Regional projections – interactive tool (XLSM) Regional projections (XLSX)

The 2016 Employment Outlook to November 2020 will be published in the coming months.

If you are having trouble accessing the Regional Projections XLSM interactive data tool, please click here for troubleshooting information. For more information about file types, please click here

Methodology

The industry, occupational and regional employment projections are based on detailed data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey. The employment projections are derived from best practice time series models that summarise the information that is in a time series and convert it into a forecast. The projections are made by combining forecasts from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing with damped trend (ESWDT) models, with some adjustments made to take account of research undertaken by the Department of Employment and likely future industry, occupational and regional developments. The projection for total employment growth for the 2016 Employment Projections is consistent with the Government’s forecasts and projections for total employment growth, as published in the December 2015 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).

These projections are for total employment (ie, both full-time and part-time employment), according to the definition of ‘employed’ used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in the Labour Force Survey. For more information about the definition of employment please click here . Labour Force Survey data are collected by the ABS on a place of usual residence basis. The scope of the survey also excludes some groups of people (such as temporary overseas workers and permanent defence force personnel). For more information about the Labour Force Survey sample design please click here