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2018 Employment Projections - for the five years to May 2023

Employment is projected to increase in 17 of the 19 broad industries over the five years to May 2023. Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth (increasing by 250,300), followed by Construction (118,800), Education and Training (113,000) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (106,600). Together, these four industries are projected to provide almost two-thirds (or 66.4 per cent) of total employment growth over the five years to May 2023.

Each year, the Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business produces employment projections by industry, occupation, skill level and region for the following five-year period. These employment projections are designed to provide a guide to the future direction of the labour market, however, like all such exercises, they are subject to an inherent degree of uncertainty.

The 2018 employment projections are based on the forecasted and projected total employment growth rates published in the 2018-19 Budget, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data (June 2018) for total employment, and the quarterly detailed LFS data (May 2018) for industry employment data.

Employment Outlook to May 2023

The Employment Outlook to May 2023 (937.7KB) provides an overview of the employment outlook across industries, occupations, states and territories, and regions.

Data files

Industry projections – five years to May 2023 (Excel) (49.3KB) Occupation projections – five years to May 2023 (Excel) (80.4KB) Skill Level projections – five years to May 2023 (Excel) (24.6KB) Regional projections – interactive tool (Excel) (2.2MB) Regional projections – five years to May 2023 (Excel) (921.3KB)

If you are having trouble accessing the Regional Projections - interactive tool (excel file located above), please open our Common Issues file (Word) (57.7KB) For more information about file types, please go to our File Types page.

Reports and Analysis

2018 Industry Employment Projections Report (Word) (245.0KB) 2018 Gender Employment Projections Report (Word) (116.7KB) Job Opportunities in the Future (PDF) (612.4KB)

Methodology for 2018 Employment Projections

The employment projections are based on detailed data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey. The projections have been derived from best practice time series models that summarise the information that is in a time series and convert it into a forecast. The projections are made by combining forecasts from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing with damped trend (ESWDT) models, with some adjustments made to take account of research undertaken by the Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business and known future industry developments. The projection for total employment growth is consistent with employment growth for the month of June 2018 and the Government’s forecasts and projections for total employment growth from 2018-19 onwards, as published in the 2018-19 Budget.

These projections are for total employment (ie, both full-time and part-time employment), according to the definition of ‘employed’ used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in the Labour Force Survey. For more information about the definition of employment, please go to the ABS website. Labour Force Survey data are collected by the ABS on a place of usual residence basis. The scope of the survey also excludes some groups of people (such as temporary overseas workers and permanent defence force personnel). For more information about the Labour Force Survey sample design, please go to the ABS website.

Supporting data

Employment Projections

Where will the jobs be in the future? The Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business projects employment growth over the next five years by region, industry, and occupation.

Vacancy Report

Online job advertising levels and trends by region, occupation and skill level are detailed in the monthly vacancy report.

Employers’ Recruitment Insights

The Survey of Employers' Recruitment Experiences is used to monitor recruitment conditions and to provide up-to-date information on regional labour market challenges.

Workforce Shortages

The Department carries out research to identify workforce shortages at the state, territory and/or national level for around 80 occupations.